News, with a practical perspective.

We link to the original sources below. Sections labelled “Sandycroft analysis” contain our interpretation and practical suggestions. Product and service links are commercial suggestions from Sandycroft, separate from the source reporting.

SOURCED NEWS SUMMARY

The news

The Office for National Statistics published its September UK trade bulletin on 12 November. Compared with August, the value of goods imports increased by £3.7 billion, or 6.9%, and goods exports rose by £2.2 billion, or 6.5%. Imports and exports increased across both EU and non-EU trade.

For Quarter 3, the total goods-and-services trade deficit widened by £6.2 billion to £10.4 billion because imports increased by more than exports. The goods deficit widened to £61.5 billion, while the estimated services surplus narrowed slightly to £51.1 billion. These national, seasonally adjusted estimates exclude non-monetary gold and other precious metals unless stated otherwise.

SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS

Separate value growth from volume and price

The headline monthly figures are in current prices. After removing inflation, ONS estimates that goods imports still rose by 5.8% and exports by 5.5% in September. ONS also notes a divergence between value and inflation-adjusted trends during 2026 linked to high fuel prices.

For a small firm, that distinction matters. A higher value of imported goods can reflect more units, a different product mix, higher supplier prices, freight or currency effects. It does not by itself mean a supplier is busier, a product is selling faster or an order is more profitable. Use the release as a prompt to examine the firm’s own quantities and costs.

SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS

Sandycroft business context: rebuild one landed-cost file

Choose one representative imported item or material and record the supplier price, currency and exchange rate, payment fee, minimum order, freight, insurance, customs-agent fee, commodity code, origin evidence, duty, import VAT timing, inland delivery, damaged-stock allowance and storage. Divide the true total by the usable units received, not the quantity ordered.

For blank garments, thread, ink, mugs, drinkware or promotional products, add decoration time, artwork and setup, packaging, failed-print allowance, picking and final delivery. Date every figure and attach the supplier or carrier evidence. A margin based on an old freight quote or a guessed exchange rate is not a usable quote.

SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS

Price an export order from the customer’s destination backwards

For an export enquiry, confirm the exact product, quantity, destination, buyer type and delivery term before promising a price. Identify who acts as exporter and importer, who supplies declaration data, whether a licence or product rule applies, what the carrier accepts, and who pays duty, taxes, brokerage and returns. Put those responsibilities in the quotation.

Start with a small, standardised test rather than the whole catalogue. Limit colours, sizes and personalisation options; set artwork-approval and production cut-offs; and collect the required payment before committing stock. Record transit time, extra charges, delivery outcome and customer questions so the next quotation uses evidence rather than optimism.

SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS

Use a movement dashboard, not the national trade balance

Track orders, units, revenue, gross margin, freight, duty, payment fees, damage, returns and delivery days separately for domestic, EU and non-EU movements. Compare the latest month with the previous month and the same period last year, but annotate large one-off orders and stock purchases so they do not distort the result.

Set review triggers: an exchange-rate movement, carrier surcharge, supplier increase, customs change or repeated delivery failure should reopen the quote template. The ONS figures show active trade flows and a wider national deficit; they do not determine whether a specific Sandycroft business should import more stock or enter a new market.

CHECK THE ORIGINAL REPORTING

Sources & dates