We link to the original sources below. Sections labelled “Sandycroft analysis” contain our interpretation and practical suggestions. Product and service links are commercial suggestions from Sandycroft, separate from the source reporting.
SOURCED NEWS SUMMARY
The news
The IEA reported that global diesel and gasoil exports in September were nearly 700,000 barrels a day lower than a year earlier. It said reduced flows from the Middle East and Russia were only partly offset by higher supply elsewhere, while stock draws left the market with less cover before peak winter demand.
The agency expects refinery output to recover towards the end of the year, but forecasts that the gasoil market will remain tight well into 2027. These are global estimates built around uncertain supply, demand and conflict assumptions. They are not a UK fuel-price forecast, and an individual firm should use live supplier and carrier quotations for decisions.
SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS
Sandycroft practical analysis: find the jobs most exposed
List the orders and services where fuel is a meaningful part of the delivered cost: own-van journeys, supplier collections, timed courier upgrades, site visits and split deliveries. For each one, record the current cost, the amount already included in the selling price and who approves an exception.
Test a small range rather than guessing one future fuel price. Ask what happens to the job margin if delivery costs rise by 5%, 10% or 15%. The purpose is not to predict the market; it is to identify quotes that would become unprofitable and decide whether their validity period or delivery terms need tightening.
SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS
Reduce avoidable miles without weakening service
Batch compatible supplier collections, confirm artwork and sizes before dispatch, and avoid sending a partial branded-clothing order unless the customer has agreed the cost and timing. A clear order confirmation should show the garment, decoration, quantity, delivery method and any deadline that depends on a premium service.
For repeat workwear customers, keeping an approved logo specification and consolidated size list can reduce remakes and second consignments. Sandycroft Workwear can help organise repeatable embroidery and print specifications; Plain Clothing can support planned garment ordering. Those steps improve process control but cannot remove wider fuel-market risk.
SANDYCROFT ANALYSIS
A seven-day cost check
Review the last month of carrier invoices and vehicle fuel receipts, calculate delivery cost as a percentage of sales for the most exposed jobs, and compare that with the amount charged to customers. Confirm which quotations are still open and whether their stated validity period is suitable.
Keep customer wording calm and specific. If a surcharge or revised delivery price is needed, explain the service it covers and apply it consistently. Revisit the calculation when actual invoices change rather than treating a global forecast as a reason for an immediate blanket increase.
CHECK THE ORIGINAL REPORTING
Sources & dates
- International Energy Agency — Oil Market Report, October 2026 Published 14 October 2026